The industry faces an uphill battle to produce the minerals needed for the transition to a low-carbon economy, at a time when investment risks globally are rising.

Mining investment risk increased globally in 2023, with companies facing growing legal and regulatory headwinds, according to Mining Journal Intelligence’s (MJI) World Risk Report 2023 featuring MineHutte ratings.

The global average Investment Risk Index (IRI) score – the key measure of overall risk – declined to 58.9 out of 100 from 59.8 last year (lower scores mean higher risk). The average is the worst in the World Risk Report’s seven-year history and corresponds to a B rating, defined as moderate risk (upper).

The World Risk Report 2023 is a comprehensive evaluation of mining investment risk, featuring assessments of 121 jurisdictions globally, up from 109 last year. IRI scores are based on 11 ‘Hard Risk’ metrics, from established risk-related indices, and corresponding ‘Perceived Risk’ scores from the World Risk Survey 2023, in which more than 600 mining professionals rated jurisdictions they are familiar with.

Risk is assessed across five categories – Legal, Governance, Social, Fiscal, and Infrastructure – with Hard Risk making up 80% of the category scores and Perceived Risk 20%.

LEGAL RISK

The drop in average IRI in 2023 was partly due to weaker Legal scores. The Legal category – which makes up 40% of the IRI – is based on Regulatory Risk Ratings from MJI’s partner MineHutte, which measure risks inherent in legislative frameworks.

On an adjusted basis – including only jurisdictions rated in 2023 and 2022 – average global Legal scores dropped to 51.7 from 53.3.

LOW-RISK JURISDICTIONS

Canada and the US remained the lowest-risk mining regions in the 2023 report, with average regional IRI scores of 73, or A ratings (low risk). Asia and Africa were the highest-risk regions, averaging 48, or CC (high risk).

Wyoming and South Dakota were the lowest-risk jurisdictions, both on 79 (AA). The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) remained the highest-risk jurisdiction despite a four-point improvement to 34 (D rating), a score matched by Venezuela, a new entry to the rankings.